TREND SCENARIOS FOR CHANGES IN EFFICIENCY IN THE USE OF MAIN PRODUCTION FACTORS IN BULGARIAN FARMS

Abstract

This study examines the efficiency of using key production factors - land, labor, capital, and fertilizers - in Bulgarian farms in the context of competitiveness and agricultural sustainability. Using autoregressive and stochastic models, the analysis develops three future scenarios: baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic projections through 2030. The results show a general upward trend in efficiency indicators across all scenarios, albeit at different rates. The optimistic scenario shows the greatest growth, driven by investments in innovation and automation. The pessimistic scenario highlights the sector’s vulnerability to restrictive policies and rising input costs, yet still demonstrates positive dynamics due to farms’ adaptability. The study emphasizes the importance of balanced policy frameworks that support modernization, workforce training, and environmental sustainability. These are crucial for improving the competitiveness of agriculture and ensuring food security amid global challenges.