INNOVATION ABSORPTIVE EFFICIENCY BEYOND INFRASTRUCTURE SATURATION: COMPARATIVE INSIGHTS FROM BULGARIA AND THE UNITED STATES

Абстракт

This paper introduces the Post-Saturation Innovation Absorptive Theory (PSIAT), a novel conceptual and empirical framework designed to explain why countries that have substantially invested in innovation-enabling infrastructure often fail to produce commensurate innovation outputs. Using data from the World Bank covering the period 2014 - 2024, this study conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of Bulgaria and the United States, constructing a new index - PSIAT Index, as the ratio between normalized innovation output and infrastructure inputs. The findings reveal that while Bulgaria has made significant infrastructural progress, its innovation efficiency remains critically low, confirming the theory’s central premise: beyond a saturation threshold, infrastructure alone is insufficient to generate innovation without deep institutional transformation. In contrast, the United States maintains high innovation output despite stable infrastructure levels, illustrating the importance of institutional maturity, policy coherence, and absorptive readiness. The study highlights three core insights: infrastructure convergence does not automatically lead to innovation convergence; absorptive efficiency is driven by institutional quality, not just technical capacity; and the PSIAT Index can serve as a powerful diagnostic tool for innovation policy. The implications are particularly relevant for EU regional innovation strategies and national R&D planning, suggesting a pivot from quantity-focused investment to structural reform and governance innovation.