BANK LENDING AND HUMAN CAPITAL DYNAMICS IN BULGARIAN AGRICULTURE: THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LEVEL AND STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT (2009-2023)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between bank lending and human capital dynamics in Bulgarian agriculture over the period 2009-2023, focusing on the level and structure of employment. Drawing on annual data from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) and the National Statistical Institute (NSI), it combines descriptive, correlation and regression analysis. The results reveal a moderate negative association between bank lending and total agricultural employment (Pearson's r = -0.554): a one-million-euro increase in lending corresponds, on average, to roughly thirty fewer employed persons. At the same time, the composition of employment shifts - the share of workers with higher education rises, while the workforce continues to age. These findings indicate that lending acts primarily as a driver of modernisation and labour-saving technological change rather than as a mechanism for expanding employment, and that its effect on human capital is mixed. On this basis, recommendations are formulated for improving access to credit and targeting financial instruments towards human capital development amid demographic pressures.